The rate of climate change poses the greatest threat to procellariiform diversity

Global palaeomap showing reconstructed 2-m palaeotemperatures with the posterior distribution of the MRA [most recent common ancestor] geographic coordinates (white points) inferred with the Geo model (from the publication)

Jorge Avaria-Llautureo (School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, UK) and colleagues have published on more than 20 species of procellariiforms across millions of years of Earth’s climatic history.  Their research combined evolutionary family trees, ancient climate records and ocean temperature data to reveal how these seabirds responded to past periods of warming and cooling.  Rather than shrinking in size as some marine species do, seabirds responded to rapid warming by contracting their ranges and extending their journeys.

The paper’s abstract follows:

“Many marine ectotherms have responded to local warming through body-size reductions and dispersal to optimal environments. However, whether endothermic marine species, such as seabirds, exhibit similar responses remains unclear owing to gaps in literature that hinder comprehensive global assessments.  Here we show that globally distributed seabirds (albatrosses, petrels, shearwaters and storm petrels) facing rapid historical climate change responded with changes in geographic range size rather than body mass.  In addition, under higher rates of climate change, species’ ranges contracted most, forcing these species to disperse longer distances.  These historical inferences align with expected responses to modern climate change, as over 70% of extant species contract their ranges and disperse farther under a climate scenario leading to severe warming by 2100.  These results underscore the urgent need to integrate range dynamics into conservation strategies and reveal that the rate of climate change poses the greatest threat to seabird diversity.”

With thanks to the World Seabird Union.

Reference:

Avaria-Llautureo, J., Rivadeneira, M.M., Venditti, C. & Luna-Jorquera, G.  2026.  Seabird range contraction and dispersal under climate change.  Nature Climate Change doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02655-4.

John Cooper, Emeritus Information Officer, Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels, 26 May 2026